[SMM Steel Market Morning News] Australia Initiates Anti-dumping Review Investigation on Rebar from China

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Macro

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IMF Raises UK Economic Growth Forecast for 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the UK economy will grow slightly higher than previously expected in 2025. During its annual "health check" of the UK economy, the IMF forecasts that the UK economy will grow by 1.2% this year, rising to 1.4% by 2026.

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Expert Advisory Group of the Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Committee of the State Council Holds Meeting: Comprehensive Rectification of "Cut-Throat Competition"

The plenary session of the Expert Advisory Group of the Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Committee of the State Council was held in Beijing. Meng Yang, member of the Party Leadership Group and Deputy Director of the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), attended and delivered a speech. Luo Wen, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Director of the SAMR, and Deputy Director of the Committee, requested that the Expert Advisory Group firmly grasp the correct political direction, focus on new issues and challenges in the field of fair competition governance, conduct forward-looking and targeted research, provide strong support for the Committee's scientific decision-making, and make new contributions to building a unified national market and promoting high-quality development. The meeting emphasized the need to closely align with the Committee's work arrangements, focus on key tasks such as accelerating the construction of a unified national market, comprehensively rectifying "cut-throat competition," and strengthening competition supervision and law enforcement, take proactive and positive actions, better fulfill the responsibilities of the Expert Advisory Group, and contribute wisdom and strength to enhancing fair competition governance capabilities and maintaining a fair competition market order. Wang Tiehan, the Anti-Monopoly Commissioner of the SAMR, presided over the meeting.

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Acceleration of Special Bonds for Land Reserves Expected to Help Stabilize the Housing Market

As of May 20, various regions have announced plans to use special bonds to repurchase nearly 3,000 plots of idle land in stock this year, with a total area exceeding 133 million m².

Experts believe that using special bonds to repurchase eligible idle land in stock will help improve market supply and demand dynamics and support the housing market in stabilizing and recovering. Going forward, regions with announced projects are expected to accelerate the issuance of special bonds for land reserves.

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Industry and Downstream

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Steel Industry Profits Reach 16.92 Billion Yuan in January-April

From January to April, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 16.92 billion yuan. From January to March, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 7.51 billion yuan. Based on this, it is estimated that the steel industry's profits in April were 9.41 billion yuan.

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Australia Initiates Anti-Dumping Review Investigation on Rebar Imports from China

On May 26, the Australian Anti-Dumping Commission issued Notice No. 2025/043, stating that in response to an application submitted by Echeng Steel Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Baowu Group and an exporter from China, it has initiated an anti-dumping review investigation on rebar with a diameter of 50 millimeters or less exported to Australia, to examine whether variable factors related to the existing anti-dumping measures should be changed. The dumping investigation period for this case is from April 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025.

The Australian Anti-Dumping Commission is expected to complete the basic facts report for this case no later than September 15, 2025, and submit the final determination report to the Australian Minister for Industry and Science no later than October 28, 2025.

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[SMM HRC Arrivals] Arrival volumes in mainstream markets increased significantly this week

SMM Steel News on May 27: According to SMM statistics, the estimated total resource shipments in mainstream markets this week were 278,400 mt, an increase of 70,900 mt compared to the shipping level of the previous week. Shanghai market: Shipping volumes in the Shanghai market increased slightly on a WoW basis this week. Specifically, shipments from the north-east, north, and east China markets remained stable, while shipments from mainstream steel mill WG in south China increased on a WoW basis. Looking ahead, with prices weakening rapidly this week and market sentiment remaining relatively pessimistic, ordering enthusiasm is average. It is expected that HRC arrivals in Shanghai will continue at a moderately low level in the short term. Lecong market: Shipments to the Lecong market increased significantly on a WoW basis this week. Specifically, on the one hand, resources from north China remained stable. On the other hand, local mainstream resources DDH and WG increased their shipments on a WoW basis. Although WG had a three-week shipping gap, the price advantage in south China was significant, and agents transferred many east China resources to south China. Looking ahead, the current price advantage in south China remains relatively significant. However, some steel mills still expect to shift their production focus from pig iron. Therefore, it is expected that the increase in short-term arrivals in the Lecong market will be limited.

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[SMM Electric Furnace Operating Rate] Single-mill production resumptions boosted the operating rate this week, with potential downward pressure next week

According to an SMM survey, as of May 27, the operating rate of 50 electric furnace steel mills primarily producing construction materials nationwide was 39.14%, up 0.68% from the previous period; the capacity utilisation rate was 39.26%, down 0.46% from the previous period; and the daily average production of construction materials was 87,400 mt, down 1,000 mt from the previous period.

By region, in the east China region, the electric furnace operating rate this period was 42.1%, down 0.9% from the previous period. Affected by the continuous decline in spot prices and difficulties in collecting steel scrap, the production enthusiasm of some electric furnace mills decreased, with a slight reduction in operating hours. In the south China region, the electric furnace operating rate this period was 46.3%, unchanged from the previous period. Persistent hot and rainy weather in the region hindered construction site operations, and steel demand remained weak. Electric furnace mills maintained production during off-peak and peak electricity periods. In the central China region, the electric furnace operating rate this period was 32.3%, up 10.4% from the previous period. An electric furnace mill completed maintenance this week and resumed normal production, driving a significant increase in the overall regional operating rate. In the southwest China region, the electric furnace operating rate this period was 33.6%, down 2.4% from the previous period. Affected by heavy rainfall and a decline in spot prices, multiple steel mills incurred losses, leading to a slight reduction in operating hours. Currently, there are no new expectations for macro policies in the market. The sustainability of end-use demand is insufficient. With the approaching rainy season and an increase in rainy weather in the coming days, the progress of construction projects for building materials is likely to slow down. Electric furnace plants will also reduce cost expenditures by lowering their operating rates to maintain corporate operations and profit levels. Therefore, it is expected that the operating rate of electric furnaces will decline slightly next week.

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Other Hot Topics

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⭕[US Official Says Nippon Steel Has Agreed to Invest US$14 Billion in US Steel]US Senator Dave McCormick stated that Nippon Steel has agreed to invest US$14 billion in US Steel. Regarding Nippon Steel's acquisition plan for US Steel, US President Trump said that although the final outcome is unknown, it will be an investment, with Nippon Steel acquiring partial ownership and US Steel remaining under US control.

⭕[CPCA's Cui Dongshu: Auto Industry Revenue Reached 3,255.2 Billion Yuan from January to April, Up 7% YoY]Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), stated in an article that driven by the subsidy policy for vehicle replacement and upgrades, 10.12 million vehicles were produced in the auto industry from January to April 2025, up 11% YoY. The auto industry's revenue reached 3,255.2 billion yuan from January to April 2025, up 7% YoY; costs were 2,863.6 billion yuan, up 8%; profits were 132.6 billion yuan, down 5.1% YoY; and the auto industry's profit margin was 4.1%, which is still relatively low compared to the average profit margin of 5.6% for downstream industrial enterprises.

⭕[German Shipbuilding Companies' Order Backlog Reaches Historical Peak]Recently, the German Shipbuilding and Oceanic Technologies Association (Verband für Schiffbau und Meerestechnik, VSM) stated in its annual press conference that the total order backlog for newly built civilian ships in 2024 reached 10.7 billion euros, the highest level ever recorded. In addition, the ship repair business is booming, and there is also a surge in warship construction.

⭕[Linggang Iron & Steel: 1#-4# Blast Furnace Equipment Upgrade Construction Project—2,290m³ Blast Furnace Commissioned]Linggang Iron & Steel announced on the evening of May 27 that after an on-site inspection and acceptance by experts organized by the Liaoning Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, the company's 1#-4# blast furnace equipment upgrade construction project—the newly built 2,290m³ blast furnace—was consistent with the announced capacity replacement plan. The project complies with the relevant provisions of the "Implementation and Management Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry" and meets the conditions for commissioning. On May 27, the company's newly built 2,290m³ blast furnace successfully tapped iron and was officially commissioned.

⭕[Zhangjiagang Port Inventories Continue to Decline This Week]This week, the HRC inventory at Zhangjiagang Port was 318,000 mt, a decrease of 31,000 mt WoW, representing an 8.88% decline. It increased by 4.26% compared to the same period in the solar calendar and decreased by 1.85% compared to the same period in the lunar calendar.

⭕On May 27, the National Headquarters for Flood Control and Drought Relief initiated a Level IV emergency response for flood control in provinces such as Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Guizhou. The office of the National Headquarters dispatched two working groups to key regions to assist and guide flood control and disaster relief efforts.

⭕[Panhua Group's 200,000 mt/year color-coated production line at its steel mill in the Philippines commences operation, aiding in the upgrade of the Philippine steel industry]On May 27, 2025, an exciting piece of news emerged from Maasim Town, Sarangani Province in southern Philippines—the 200,000 mt/year color-coated production line of the Philippines' integrated steel project, invested in and constructed by China's Panhua Group, commenced operation smoothly, successfully producing its first coil of color-coated products.